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Original Contribution |

Age and Rate of Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer Disease:  Implications for Clinical Trials

Charles Bernick, MD; Jeffrey Cummings, MD; Rema Raman, PhD; Xiaoying Sun, MS; Paul Aisen, MD
Arch Neurol. 2012;69(7):901-905. doi:10.1001/archneurol.2011.3758.
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Background  Factors that affect the rate of progression of Alzheimer disease (AD) need to be considered in the clinical trial designs of potential disease-modifying therapies.

Objective  To determine the influence of age on AD course in a clinical trial setting.

Design  Pooled cohort study from 3 AD clinical trials of 18-month duration conducted by the Alzheimer Disease Cooperative Study group.

Setting  Alzheimer disease research centers from across the United States.

Patients  Four hundred seventy-one subjects with mild to moderate AD assigned to the placebo arm of 3 clinical trials.

Main Outcome Measures  The relationships between baseline age and rate of change in the Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale–cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) 11, Mini-Mental State Examination, Clinical Dementia Rating scale Sum of Boxes score, Alzheimer Disease Cooperative Study–activities of daily living scale, and Neuropsychiatric Inventory were analyzed using a mixed-effect regression model. Sample size calculation for possible future AD clinical trials lasting 18 months using the results of the change in ADAS-cog 11 by tertiles of age groups.

Results  Older age at baseline was associated with a slower rate of decline in the ADAS-cog 11 and the Mini-Mental State Examination scores. Almost twice as many subjects aged 80 years and older compared with those aged younger than 70 years would be required to demonstrate a 30% treatment effect on the ADAS-cog 11 in an 18-month AD trial.

Conclusion  Subject age is an important factor to consider when defining the study population in and analyzing data from AD trials of potential disease-modifying therapies.

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Figure 1. Change in the Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale–cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) 11, ADAS-memory, Clinical Dementia Rating scale–Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB), and Alzheimer Disease Cooperative Study–activities of daily living (ADCS-ADL) scale scores over time by age quartile groups using a linear mixed-effects regression model.

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Figure 2. Sample size estimates by age group using an analysis of covariance model to compare 18-month mean change from baseline in Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale–cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog) 11 between 2 treatment groups. Assumptions include a 30% effect size, correlation between baseline and 18-month ADAS-cog 11 scores of 0.78, a type I error of 5%, and 80% power. Mean (SD) change scores used in the calculations were estimated from the mixed-effects model and observed to be the following: 10.80 (6.96) (age, ≤70 years), 8.61 (6.53) (age, 71-80 years), and 6.48 (5.47) (>80 years).

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